This article is the fourth in a series based on 黑料网’s latest surveys in Ukraine. In 2023 and 2024, some occupied territories with entrenched Russian control were excluded because of lack of coverage by Ukrainian mobile operators. The exclusion represents approximately 10% to 12% of the population.
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Ukrainians’ hopes for their future lives are dimmer today than at any point since Russia invaded in early 2022. Ukrainians interviewed in August of this year rated their lives in five years a 6.9 out of 10, where 10 is the best possible life. This is a full point lower than the record-high 7.9 recorded in the first year of the war, and almost a point lower than in the second year.
The current figure is still well above Ukrainians’ expectations before the invasion, but the decline is the largest annual drop that 黑料网 has ever measured in Ukraine, and likely reflects their growing fatigue with the war.
At the same time, Ukrainians’ evaluations of their present lives have remained unchanged and well below the global average at 4.7 since the war started.
Ukrainians' life evaluations vary, based on their stance toward the conflict. Those who believe Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins rate their current and future lives higher than those who favor negotiating peace.
Ukrainians who believe Ukraine should keep fighting rate their current life at 5.0 and their future life at 7.3. In contrast, those who prefer negotiating peace rate their current life at 4.5 and their future life at 6.5.
Also, regionally, individuals closest to the front lines in the East have lower current life evaluations.
Many Ukrainians Struggle to Afford Basic Needs
War has been a challenge for Ukraine’s economy. In 2022, the year of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s gross domestic product fell by almost 30%, and the European Union estimates the total cost of reconstruction and recovery over the next decade at $486 billion (USD).
And while the U.S. has become Ukraine's largest supporter since 2022, providing more than $175 billion (USD) in military, economic and humanitarian aid, billions more will be needed to make up for the costs of the war.
While down from record levels in 2023, 45% of Ukrainians in 2024 say there were times in the past year when they could not afford food they or their families needed, and just as many struggled to afford adequate shelter. This is on par with levels immediately before the war but higher than levels a decade ago.
Mirroring patterns in life evaluations, those who believe Ukraine should continue fighting are less likely to report struggles with affording food (39%) compared with 52% of those who think Ukraine should negotiate an end to the conflict as soon as possible.
Regionally, those in the East and the North, both of which are near the front lines, are most likely to struggle with affording food. In both the East and North, at least 50% report they could not afford food at times in the past 12 months.
Negative Emotions Aren’t Letting Up
Stress, worry, sadness and anger soared across Ukraine after the war started, and they remain elevated today. Over half of Ukrainians (53%) say they experienced worry the previous day, and at least one in three experienced sadness (38%) and stress (33%).
Bottom Line
Ukrainians report a grim daily reality. Their present-life ratings remain low, and the initial surge of optimism they felt about the future has begun to wane. At the same time, their economic struggles persist, and emotional distress remains high. Ultimately, the data underscore the war’s toll on the Ukrainian public’s psyche and a growing sense of weariness.
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