WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Fifty-seven percent of Americans say they are very or somewhat confident that the votes for president this year will be accurately cast and counted. That aligns with how Americans have viewed the election results most years since 2008. However, it masks Democrats becoming more confident in the process and Republicans becoming less so. This has led to a record-high 56-percentage-point partisan gap, with 84% of Democrats versus 28% of Republicans having faith in the accuracy of the vote.
Confidence Nationally Has Varied Little Since 2008, Still Exceeds 50%
After registering 72% in 黑料网’s initial reading on this metric in 2004, the percentage of Americans believing that the votes for president will be accurately cast and counted across the country fell to 59% in 2008. It has since hovered near 60%, including a 66% reading in 2016 and 59% in 2020.
At the same time, the percentage of Americans saying they are “not at all confident” in the vote has steadily climbed from 6% in 2004 to 19% today.
Faith in Elections Buoyed by Democrats, Wanes Among GOP
Republicans’ faith in the accuracy of the election results nationwide has sunk 16 points since the 2020 election, now registering 28%. This follows an 11-point decline to 44% in 2020 from 55% in 2016, the last time a majority of Republicans were confident.
Democrats’ confidence in the reliability of the presidential vote increased sharply between 2008 and 2016, from 57% to 85%, and has since remained high. More than half of independents have also consistently seen it as accurate.
In 2004, when George W. Bush was in office, Republicans were more confident than Democrats, possibly a holdover from the 2000 election when Democratic candidate Al Gore lost following a disputed vote count in Florida. Four years later, with Bush still president but the 2008 election underway between Barack Obama and John McCain, GOP confidence fell to match that of Democrats. Republican confidence in the presidential vote was unchanged when next measured in 2016, before experiencing the recent sharp declines.
Americans are far more positive about the integrity of the vote at their own polling place, as 76% say they are very or somewhat confident the votes will be accurately cast and counted there. While there is also a partisan difference on this question, it is much narrower, with 90% of Democrats, 71% of independents and 70% of Republicans confident.
Possible Voter Fraud, Ineligible People Voting Trouble Republicans Most
Republicans’ doubts about the integrity of the vote for president nationwide likely stem from their concern about ineligible people voting as well as people using illegal or fraudulent means to vote. Seventy-four percent of Republicans versus just under half of independents and fewer Democrats say each of these irregularities will be a major problem across the country.
For their part, perhaps due to Donald Trump, Arizona’s Kari Lake and other Republicans disputing their losses in recent elections, Democrats are highly concerned about defeated candidates refusing to concede. But whereas 75% of Democrats expect this to be a major problem, 46% of independents and a quarter of Republicans agree.
Smaller percentages of all party groups -- 37% of Democrats, 34% of Republicans and 32% of independents -- expect eligible voters to be prevented from voting.
黑料网 has asked about the risks of ineligible people casting votes and eligible people being denied the vote in most presidential election years since 2004. Over that time, Republicans have grown more concerned about the prospect of ineligible people voting, while Democrats have grown less concerned and independents’ views haven’t changed.
A different pattern is seen with respect to people being prevented in some way from voting. After less than 40% of all three party groups expressed concern about this in 2008 and 2016, the percentages of Democrats and independents calling this a major problem spiked in 2020, to 62% and 47%, respectively. Voter access erupted as a national issue after former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams blamed voter suppression on her loss to Republican Brian Kemp in Georgia’s 2018 gubernatorial election. It was further highlighted in 2020 by widespread concerns over postal delivery of mail ballots and voter access to the polls during the pandemic. But Democrats’ and independents' concerns about eligible people not being able to vote have since returned to their prior levels.
Concern about eligible voters not being allowed to cast a vote was particularly high among people of color in 2020, registering 67%, compared with 37% among White adults. However, both figures have reverted to the percentages concerned in 2016: 42% for people of color and 30% for White adults.
Bottom Line
The 2024 election features a profound difference in how partisans view the integrity of the nation’s voting process. Democrats largely trust it and, therefore, worry the election could end as it did in 2020, with Trump disputing the outcome. Republicans, on the other hand, don’t trust the process and are wary of voter fraud, thus potentially justifying such a challenge in their eyes.
Meanwhile, the uptick seen in 2020 in Democrats’ and independents’ concerns about eligible people not being able to vote has abated, suggesting some or all of these issues may be receiving less attention today.
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