WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ enthusiasm about voting in this year’s election has surged in recent months, with 69% of U.S. adults now saying they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting. This is up from 54% in March.
The Aug. 1-20 survey was conducted mostly before the Aug. 19-22 Democratic National Convention but after President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid on July 21. Party leaders quickly coalesced around Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee in the days after Biden's announcement.
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are largely driving the surge in enthusiasm nationally. In March, 55% of Democrats and Democratic leaners said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting; now, 78% are. Republicans and Republican leaners, who held a slight edge in enthusiasm in March, now trail Democrats by a significant margin, with their current 64% enthusiasm score up slightly from 59% in the spring.
As a result of these changes, election enthusiasm has shifted from being at an average level in March to the highest 黑料网 has measured during a presidential election campaign. 黑料网 measured similarly high enthusiasm -- 67% -- in September 2020, October 2008 and August 2004 surveys.
Democrats’ current level of enthusiasm is one percentage point shy of the group’s high in 黑料网’s trend since 2000. That was the 79% measured in February 2008, when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were engaged in a spirited battle for the party’s presidential nomination. Enthusiasm subsided later that year, but by the end of the campaign, consistently more than seven in 10 said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting. Democratic enthusiasm was also elevated during the 2004 and 2020 presidential campaigns.
Republican enthusiasm about the 2024 election is approaching the record 70% measured in August 2020, when Donald Trump was seeking a second term as president. Republicans had similarly high levels of enthusiasm in the latter stages of the 2004 and 2012 elections.
Thought Given to the Election at Record High for August
The Aug. 1-20 poll also finds 79% of Americans saying they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the election, surpassing the previous August high of 74% in 2008.
Given that more Americans typically pay attention to the election closer to Election Day than do in August, 2024 is poised to establish a new high in election thought at the conclusion of the campaign. Currently, the 84% from 2004 is the highest 黑料网 has measured immediately before Election Day.
Americans have been closely tuned in to the election all year, with 77% in February and 71% in April saying they had given it considerable thought.
Early this year, Republicans were more likely than Democrats and independents to be thinking about the election, perhaps because of the Republican presidential primaries. Now, Democrats and Republicans show similar levels of attention, with independents still trailing by about 20 percentage points.
Most Voters Have Made Up Their Minds
With voters highly engaged in the election campaign, it is not surprising that most have already made their choice about whom they will be voting for. Seventy-nine percent of U.S. adults, including 83% of those registered to vote, report they have made up their mind, leaving about one in five U.S. adults (19%) -- and one in six registered voters (16%) -- saying they are still deciding.
Democratic adults (93%) are slightly more likely than Republican adults (86%) to say they have made up their mind. About six in 10 political independents report having decided on a candidate, while 35% have not.
Americans Generally Positive About the Campaign Process
Americans mostly answer positively when asked about six different ways the campaign could reflect a healthy democracy. Specifically, 79% think the presidential campaign has identified at least one good candidate; 71% say it has fostered discussion of important issues; 81% believe they know where the candidates stand on those issues; and 72% say the candidates have offered solutions to the country's problems.
In contrast to these generally positive reviews, more Americans disagree than agree that the way the campaign is being conducted makes them think the process is working as it should.
On a more personal level, 88% of U.S. adults say it makes a real difference to them who is elected president.
For the campaign aspects that generate positive reviews, majorities of both Republicans and Democrats agree that the campaign is going well in these respects, in some cases because they are probably answering in terms of their preferred candidate. By contrast, their views of how the campaign is being conducted may tap more into perceptions of the opposing candidate.
At a time when the Trump campaign is calling foul on the Democrats’ replacement of Biden as the Democratic nominee after the primaries had taken place, 70% of Democrats versus 26% of Republicans say the conduct of the campaign makes them feel the process is working this year. Independents’ views are closer to those of Republicans than Democrats.
Republicans and Democrats hold similarly positive views on the other election dynamics rated, while independents tend to be less positive than the two major-party groups about the campaign.
Bottom Line
Biden’s decision to stand down as the Democratic nominee amid pressure from high-ranking Democrats preceded a surge in election enthusiasm among the party faithful while raising doubts among Republicans and independents about the process. Still, both party groups are highly engaged in the election, although Democrats' level of engagement now exceeds that of Republicans. As a result of elevated election thought and enthusiasm in both parties, voter participation could surpass what it was in 2020, when two-thirds of eligible U.S. adults cast ballots, the highest in over 100 years.
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