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Oct. 29, 2020

A new 黑料网 analysis of the evolution of President Donald Trump's job approval rating over the course of 2020 shows significant declines among some of the demographic groups that helped him win the election four years ago.

While Trump began the year with his personal best ratings following his impeachment acquittal, the coronavirus pandemic, the economic downturn that it caused and heightened nationwide racial tensions all likely contributed to this erosion in approval.

• Approval is now further below the majority level among suburbanites nationwide (and among both suburban men and suburban women); it's also lower now among residents of the Southwest, Great Lakes and Rocky Mountain regions -- all of whom helped Trump win in 2016.
• A number of groups that did not support Trump in 2016 -- including non-White adults, younger adults and LGBTQ adults -- disapprove of his job performance even more now than they did in early 2020.
• The demographic groups registering the lowest approval ratings of Trump include Democrats, liberals, Black adults, non-White older adults, and LGBTQ Americans.

Still, the president maintains majority-level approval ratings among his base, including Republicans, conservatives, rural residents, White men and White adults without a college degree.

Read the full analysis here: Suburbanites Show One of Largest Drops in Trump Approval

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Oct. 22, 2020

Americans' mentions of the top problem facing the country today are light on economic worries and international concerns while heavy on the coronavirus pandemic and government.

In the latest poll, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 15, the percentage of U.S. adults naming the coronavirus as the top problem is back up to 30% after slipping to 25% in September -- but still not as high as it was in April (45%). Government/Poor leadership is cited by 23%, followed by race relations at 10%.

Mentions of the economy in general are at 9% this month, up slightly from September (5%). When combining all economic-oriented issues cited, including unemployment and the wealth gap, 14% of Americans mention some aspect of the economy, up from 9% last month.

	Aug 31-Sep 13, 2020	Sep 30-Oct 15, 2020
	%	%
Coronavirus/Diseases	25	30
The government/Poor leadership	25	23
Race relations/Racism	13	10
Economy in general	5	9
Unifying the country	6	5
Crime/Violence	8	5
Healthcare	3	4
Unemployment/Jobs	2	3
Judicial system/Courts/Laws	3	3
Environment/Pollution/Climate change	2	3
Net non-economic problems	91	87
Net economic problems	9	14
"Net non-economic problems" and "Net economic problems" are the percentages of Americans naming at least one issue in each category of problems.
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At a time when the U.S. is not involved in any major military conflicts, international problems do not make the top 10 -- similar to what 黑料网 found just before the 2012 presidential election. The only issue in this domain currently cited by even 1% of Americans is relations with China.

黑料网 has asked its "most important problem facing the country" question monthly since March 2001, and prior to that asked it frequently over the years since 1939. The last time economic mentions were this low immediately preceding a presidential election in which an incumbent was running was in 1964. At that time, a number of international concerns and domestic racial issues were the dominant responses.

	Net economic mentions
	%
2020 Sep 30-Oct 15	14
2012 Oct 15-16	72
2004 Oct 11-14	40
1996 Jul 25-28	40
1992 Aug 28-Sep 2	69
1984 Sep 28-Oct 1	48
1980 Oct 10-13	66
1976 Oct 22-25	65
1972 Oct 13-16	31
1964 Oct 8-13	13
"Net economic mentions" is the percentage naming one or more economic issues, something 黑料网 has computed since 1996. Figures for 1964-1992 are combined mentions of the leading economic issues cited over the years (the economy, unemployment, inflation and the federal budget deficit).
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This doesn't mean the economy won't be an important factor in the 2020 election. In fact, the economy ranks as the No. 1 issue that voters say will matter to them in their vote for president. However, 2020 presents an unusual situation in which members of both major political parties may have strong incentives not to mention the economy as the nation's top problem.

• Republicans may not mention it as the top problem because they associate the economy with President Donald Trump's job performance on the issue, which they review positively.
• Democrats may not name it because they see addressing the COVID-19 situation as the higher priority, at a time when many see the battle against the virus and keeping the economy open as a zero-sum game.

Key Election Insights

Several recent 黑料网 reports on Trump's ratings and voting in 2020 provide important context for the nation's electoral climate.

• 黑料网's semifinal job approval rating on Trump before Election Day is 43%, well short of the 50% threshold met by most incumbents who have won reelection. The only exception to date was George W. Bush, whose approval rating varied between 48% and 51% in the days leading up to his reelection in 2004.

Learn how Trump's rating compares historically and about the record political polarization of his latest approval rating: Trump Job Rating Steady; Other Mood Indicators Tick Up

• Joe Biden leads Trump 54% to 47% in 黑料网's historical "scalometer" measure of candidate favorability.

Read all about the historical context for these figures: Candidate Favorable Ratings Up Over 2016, but Still Low

• A record-high 77% of U.S. voters say the 2020 election matters more to them than previous elections have, with Democrats leading Republicans 85% to 79% in expressing this sentiment. Fewer independents feel this way, although the 69% saying so comes close to their previous high.

Get the full story: More Voters Than in Prior Years Say Election Outcome Matters

• Less than half of Republicans (44%) are confident that the votes for president will be accurately cast and counted this year. Their biggest concern is people using fraudulent means to cast votes (70% predict this will be a major problem) and votes being cast by people who are not legally eligible (67%).

Learn how Republicans' fears about the election compare with those of Democrats: Confidence in Accuracy of U.S. Election Matches Record Low

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Oct. 18, 2020

Three issues have dominated public discussion this year as the country fell into a pandemic followed by a recession and experienced a seminal moment in race relations after the death of George Floyd in May. As such, candidates' positioning on the economy, race relations and the coronavirus all rank fairly high in importance to Americans' vote this year among 16 issues asked about. Two of these issues -- the coronavirus response and race relations -- show significant gender differences in stated importance. The economy is more of a universal concern.

Women are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, and thus differences in views on the issues by gender will reflect these underlying partisan distinctions. One way to see past this is to review gender differences within each party group.

Here we do just that, based on 黑料网's Sept. 14-28 national poll.

	Economy	Coronavirus response	Race relations
	%	%	%
Republicans/Lean Republican
Men	48	19	15
Women	49	27	33
Republican gender gap (pct. pts.)	1	8	18
Democrats/Lean Democratic
Men	38	59	47
Women	42	65	62
Democratic gender gap (pct. pts.)	4	6	15
Based on registered voters
黑料网, Sept. 14-28, 2020

So, what do these figures show?

1. Women of both major parties who are registered to vote are more likely than their male counterparts to rate race relations as extremely important to their vote, resulting in an 18-percentage-point gender gap among Republican voters (including independents who lean Republican) and a 15-point gap among Democratic voters (including Democratic leaners).

2. The response to the coronavirus as a voting issue sparks smaller gender differences in both parties: 27% of Republican women versus 19% of Republican men rate the coronavirus response as extremely important to their vote. That eight-point difference compares with a six-point gender gap among Democrats. These findings align with the larger gender patterns on COVID-19 related to women being more concerned about contracting the illness and being more likely to take preventive measures such as social distancing.

3. Views of the economy's importance show little difference by gender among registered voters.

To the extent that certain issues could sway voters this year, candidates' positioning on race relations and the coronavirus response may be more galvanizing to women than to men.

Among registered voters, fewer Republican men and women approve of President Donald Trump's handling of the coronavirus response and race relations than approve of his handling of the economy. Thus, he risks losing some base support on these issues -- particularly among women, who see the issues as major factors in their vote.

	Economy	Coronavirus response	Race relations
	%	%	%
Republicans/Lean Republican
Men	93	83	77
Women	93	87	81
Democrats/Lean Democratic
Men	22	5	9
Women	12	3	3
Based on registered voters
黑料网, Sept. 14-28, 2020

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Oct. 7, 2020

From now through Election Day, 黑料网 will feature a rolling blog of metrics and data on Americans' views during this unprecedented presidential election campaign. 黑料网 will still publish in-depth articles on key findings, but we will also use this blog to keep you informed about a variety of other must-know discoveries. Follow on Twitter for frequent updates to this blog.

For additional trends and insights, visit 黑料网's 2020 Presidential Election Center.

Views on Candidates' Qualities, Agreement With Them on Issues

Before the first presidential debate and news that President Donald Trump had contracted COVID-19, American voters were more likely to say his opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, has the personality and leadership qualities that a president should have. According to 黑料网's Sept. 14-28 poll, nearly half of registered voters (49%) agreed that Biden has these qualities, while 44% agreed that Trump has them. At the same time, similar percentages of voters said they agree with the candidates on the issues: 49% said so of Trump and 46% of Biden.

Most Say They Are Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago

During his presidential campaign in 1980, Ronald Reagan asked Americans, "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" Since then, this question has served as a key standard that sitting presidents running for reelection have been held to.

黑料网's most recent survey found a clear majority of registered voters (56%) saying they are better off now than they were four years ago, while 32% said they are worse off.

Review 黑料网's findings on all aspects of Election 2020:

• Learn more about key metrics that matter for Election 2020 in 黑料网's 2020 Presidential Election Center, with trends dating back more than 70 years.
• Find all 黑料网 articles related to the election on our Election 2020 topics page.

This blog will be updated frequently between now and Election Day with unique insights and findings from 黑料网's final preelection polls. Please bookmark and visit often, or follow on Twitter to stay informed.

Explore more of 黑料网's Election 2020 content below: