Bitcoin recently broke below a short-term rising trend line to signal that a reversal from the uptrend is due. Price has pulled up for a retest and the broken support is holding as resistance, possibly sending price down to the next downside targets.
Applying the Fib extension tool on the breakdown shows where bears could take bitcoin next. The 50% level lines up with the swing low around $3,800 which might be the first take-profit point. Stronger selling pressure could take bitcoin to the 61.8% level at $3,737.50 or the 78.6% level at $3,649.80. The full extension is at $3,538.0.
The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the climb is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. Price is hovering at the 100 SMA dynamic support and might be due to test or break the 200 SMA as an early signal that bears have the upper hand. The gap between the indicators is also narrowing to reflect weaker bullish momentum.
RSI seems to be on the move down to indicate that selling pressure is still in play and could be enough to drag bitcoin down to the next downside targets. However, the oscillator is also turning slightly higher to signal that buyers might put up a fight.
Meanwhile, stochastic is on its way up to show that buyers are in control and could keep the uptrend going. This oscillator has just crossed the center line to reflect a pickup in bullish pressure and has some ground to cover before reaching the overbought zone.
Some resurfacing concerns on bitcoin appear to be keeping a lid on prices, and it doesn’t help that a few more analysts are calling more declines in price. Bitcoin ATMs in Calgary posted losses after security attacks that led to $200K worth of coins being stolen.
For many, this indicates how hackers are also advancing in the complexity of their schemes, throwing attention to security flaws that might still need to be addressed before bitcoin is adopted by the mainstream market.