LONDON -- Americans’ confidence in their nation’s judicial system and courts dropped to a record-low 35% in 2024.
The result further sets the U.S. apart from other wealthy nations, where a majority, on average, still expresses trust in an institution that relies largely on the public’s confidence to protect its authority and independence.
Between 2006 and 2020, Americans’ perceptions of their courts were most often in line with the median for OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, with a majority in each typically expressing confidence.
Since 2020, confidence in the courts across the other OECD countries has been stable, while the U.S. has seen a sharp decline -- 24 percentage points -- in the past four years. The resulting 20-point gap in confidence between the U.S. and the median of OECD nations in 2024 is the largest in the 黑料网 trend, which dates to 2006.
A Globally Significant Collapse
The decline in confidence in the U.S. judicial system not only means the U.S. ranks below other rich nations, it is also among the steepest declines 黑料网 has measured globally on this metric.
Few countries and territories have seen larger percentage-point drops in confidence in the judiciary (over a similar four-year span) than the U.S. These include Myanmar (from 2018 to 2022) overlapping the return to military rule in 2021, Venezuela (2012-2016) amid deep economic and political turmoil, and Syria (2009-2013) in the runup to and early years of civil war, and others that have experienced their own kinds of disorder in the past two decades.
While confidence in U.S. courts is at its record low, it is still higher than what 黑料网 has previously measured in places such as Venezuela in 2016 (16%), Democratic Republic of Congo in 2013 (22%) or Syria in 2013 (25%).
Confidence Drops Regardless of Leadership Views
A look at trends in judicial confidence by Americans’ approval of their country’s leadership (黑料网 doesn’t measure party identification in its global surveys) provides insights into how the U.S. has reached its lowest point on record for faith in the courts.
Under Joe Biden’s presidency, those disapproving of U.S. leadership have lost confidence in the judicial system and courts, from 46% in 2021 to 29% in 2024. By contrast, judicial confidence among those approving of U.S. leadership was steady at 62% between 2021 and 2023, before dipping sharply to 44% this year. This follows a pattern similar to, though more pronounced than, the one seen in the first four years of Barack Obama’s administration.
This year marks the first time on record that judicial confidence among those approving of U.S. leadership has ever dipped below 60%, and the first time that confidence in the courts has been below 50% among both those who approve and those who disapprove of U.S. leadership, a double whammy pushing the national figure to its lowest in two decades.
It’s been the norm for those disapproving of their country’s leadership during Democratic administrations to lose confidence in the judicial system over time (just as disapprovers of the country’s leadership did during Donald Trump’s presidency, though to a lesser degree).
However, the 17-point drop under Biden signals that something profound occurred to atypically shake his opponents’ confidence in the courts -- with the various legal cases against Trump likely factors. Similarly, the 18-point decline in confidence in the judicial system between 2023 and 2024 among those who approve of their country’s leadership may also be related to Trump’s legal cases, reflecting dissatisfaction with several circuit court and Supreme Court decisions that went in Trump’s favor.
Meanwhile, the stability of U.S. leadership approvers’ confidence in the judicial system, above 60% across the first three years of Biden’s presidency (before plunging in 2024), contrasts with the decline 黑料网 has documented in Democrats’ trust in the Supreme Court, specifically, over the same period. This suggests that the questions measure different sentiments -- particularly that respondents may not have had only the Supreme Court in mind when asked about the judicial system and courts more generally.
Democrats’ trust in the judicial branch headed by the Supreme Court fell 25 points (from 50% to 25%) between 2021 and 2022, spanning the Dobbs decision overturning constitutional protections for abortion. Democrats’ confidence in the Supreme Court rebounded a bit, to 34% in 2023, before sinking to 24% in 2024. By contrast, Republicans’ trust in the high court increased slightly between 2021 (61%) and 2022 (67%), and stretched to 71% in 2024.
Not All Institutions See Similar Drops in Confidence
The judiciary stands out for losing more U.S. public confidence than many other U.S. institutions experienced between 2020 and 2024. Even though confidence in the national government also declined, by 20 points to 26% in 2024, the decline of 24 points in judicial confidence is somewhat outsized, which is atypical. Dozens of countries have at different points seen larger collapses in government confidence than the U.S., while few have seen bigger declines in judicial confidence.
Americans also express less confidence in the military and financial institutions in 2024 than they did in 2020, but these declines have not been as severe. About half of Americans today are confident in the honesty of elections, up slightly compared with 2020 (45%).
The net result is that for the first time on record, many more Americans trust the honesty of their elections (51%) than trust their judicial system (35%).
Bottom Line
Confidence in the rule of law is foundational to a free society. But Americans’ faith in the embodiment of the rule of law -- the judicial system -- has fallen significantly in recent years.
Once Trump takes office in early 2025, attitudes could change yet again. But if confidence in the courts remains jaded -- perhaps for different reasons and irrespective of approval toward the country’s leadership under Trump -- it could undermine the public’s faith in the legitimacy of important legal cases and decisions.
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