WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As military aid for Ukraine remains stalled in the U.S. House of Representatives, Americans themselves are equally split, at 36% each, between those who believe the United States is doing too much to help Ukraine and those saying it’s not doing enough. However, this is a more favorable balance of opinion for Ukraine than last fall, when more thought the U.S. was doing too much (41%) than not enough (25%).
This comes as Americans’ perceptions of who is winning the war have also shifted, with more now saying Russia rather than Ukraine has the upper hand, although a majority of U.S. adults still see neither side as winning.
Partisans remain sharply divided in their opinions of the war, with Democrats more supportive than Republicans of helping Ukraine. However, the gap is now at a record high, given the surge in Democrats’ belief since last fall that the U.S. is not doing enough. Republicans’ minimal agreement with this position hasn’t changed, and political independents’ views are closer to Republicans’ than Democrats’.
Uptick in Percentage of Americans Who Think U.S. Is Not Helping Ukraine Enough
This is the first time that less than 30% of Americans say the U.S. is doing the right amount to support Ukraine, which was the most common view as recently as June, when 43% held this opinion. Last fall saw a surge in the percentage saying the U.S. was doing too much, though that view has subsided since then.
The latest data are from a 黑料网 poll conducted March 1-17, several weeks after the U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan aid package that included $60 billion in funding for Ukraine. The bill has been stuck in the U.S. House as Speaker Mike Johnson has been working to get support from his Republican caucus, which currently holds a slim two-vote majority. Conservative House Republicans have vowed to withhold support for any foreign aid bill that does not include funding for strengthening the U.S. southern border.
Democrats -- and, to a lesser extent, independents -- are driving the increase since October in views that the U.S. is not doing enough in the conflict. Sixty percent of Democrats (up by 22 percentage points) say U.S. support for Ukraine is insufficient, while 34% of independents (up by nine points) agree. At the same time, Republicans’ view is essentially unchanged, with 15% saying the U.S. is not doing enough.
In addition, between 25% and 28% of all three party groups think the current level of help for Ukraine is about right, while 57% of Republicans, 39% of independents and 13% of Democrats think the U.S. is doing too much. Before October, no more than 50% of Republicans and 35% of independents said the U.S. was doing too much.
Majority Still Favors Supporting Ukraine in Reclaiming Territory
Fifty-five percent of Americans think the U.S. should continue to support Ukraine in reclaiming its territory, even if that requires prolonged involvement, rather than ending the conflict as quickly as possible, even if that means ceding territory to Russia (43%). These findings are unchanged from the previous readings in October. However, the percentage of Americans who now favor continuing the fight to win back Ukraine’s territory is lower than the 62% to 66% who preferred that approach between August 2022 and June 2023.
As has been the case since August 2022, a broad majority of Democrats (77%) prefer helping Ukraine reclaim the land it has lost to Russia. In contrast, 45% of Republicans and 47% of independents favor the same approach, while slim majorities of both party groups support a quick end to the war.
More Say Russia Winning, but Majority Still See Neither Side Prevailing
The majority of Americans, 65%, continue to think the war in Ukraine is at a stalemate, but they are more likely now (23%) than they were in October (14%) to say Russia is winning. The 12% of U.S. adults who believe Ukraine is winning the war is down from 20% in October.
Since the last survey, Russia has made some gains in Ukraine, while Ukraine has not been able to do much in its counteroffensive effort.
Partisans’ perceptions of the war are nearly identical, but this has not always been the case. In the two previous readings, Democrats were much more likely than Republicans and independents to say Ukraine was winning. Last June, 45% of Democrats said Ukraine was winning the war, but that figure fell to 32% in October and now stands at 15%. Meanwhile, 11% of Republicans and 10% of independents now say Ukraine is winning.
Republicans Hold Slight Edge on Handling the U.S. Response to the War
Americans are slightly more likely to say the Republicans in Congress are doing a better job of handling the U.S. response to the war in Ukraine than to say Joe Biden is (49% vs. 44%, respectively). Likewise, Donald Trump (50%) edges out Biden (46%) as potentially better at handling the U.S. response.
Broad majorities of Republicans and Democrats choose their own party’s congressional leaders and 2024 presidential contender as the better managers of the United States’ response to the Russia-Ukraine war, while slim majorities of independents favor Republican leaders.
Bottom Line
Two years after Russia invaded Ukraine, Americans are divided over whether the United States’ support for Ukraine is sufficient. Still, a majority continues to believe that helping reclaim Ukrainian territory is worth the effort, however long it may take. Partisans hold drastically different views on the subject, with Democrats much more supportive than Republicans of helping Ukraine. This has played out among congressional Republicans as U.S. aid for Ukraine has been delayed in the House. Johnson is attempting to forge a compromise, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued a dire warning that help is needed now, but Johnson could lose his position as speaker if he does not satisfy differing segments of the Republican caucus.
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