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WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The broad contours of the American public's views on Israel and the Palestinian Authority have been fairly constant this century, but aspects have changed, at least among certain age, party and ideological subgroups.

The following 10 graphs summarize 黑料网's key Israeli-Palestinian trends over the past two decades. The latest results are based on a Feb. 3-18 poll that was conducted before violence erupted in the region in early May. Thus, they provide a backdrop to attitudes ahead of that conflict, rather than reflecting post-conflict attitudes. Additional 黑料网 analysis of these data is available in 黑料网's March 19 news article.

Positive Views of Israel Largely Unchanged

Americans' overall impression of Israel has been largely positive, with no less than 58% viewing that nation favorably since 2001.

Israel's image has remained positive among both party groups over the past two decades, although more positive among Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) than among Democrats (including Democratic leaners). Most recently, 85% of Republicans and 66% of Democrats viewed Israel favorably.

Americans have also remained more partial to the Israelis' side than to the Palestinians' when asked where their sympathies lie in the Mideast conflict. At no time over the past two decades has Americans' sympathy for Israel fallen below the majority level when asked on 黑料网's annual World Affairs survey. With 58% of U.S. adults sympathizing with the Israelis and 25% with the Palestinians earlier this year, the 2021 net sympathy reading in favor of Israel is +33.

Positive Views of Palestinians Still Low, but Rising

At the same time that positive feelings and sympathy toward Israel remain high, the percentages of Americans viewing the Palestinian Authority favorably and saying they sympathize more with the Palestinians than the Israelis in the conflict inched up to all-time highs this year.

Thirty percent now view the Palestinian Authority favorably, 12 percentage points higher than the average from 2001 to 2020. One-quarter now sympathize more with the Palestinians than the Israelis in the conflict, in contrast with an average 17% in the prior 20 years.

Democrats Mostly Driving Change

From a partisan standpoint, Democrats were the prime drivers of Palestinians' improved ratings between 2013 and 2020, although Republicans' view of the Palestinian Authority also improved this year.

The trend in Democrats' sympathies in the conflict is also striking. From 2002 through 2014, Democrats were significantly more likely to side with the Israelis than the Palestinians. Since 2014, that preference has gradually faded, and now Democrats are about equally as likely to sympathize with the Palestinians as with the Israelis.

There has been no corresponding change in Republicans' sympathies, with the vast majority in 2021 (79%) sympathizing more with Israel and relatively few (11%) with the Palestinians, consistent with Republicans' views over the past two decades.

The contrast between Republicans and Democrats on this question is best illustrated by the trend in net sympathies for Israel (the percentage sympathetic toward Israel minus the percentage sympathetic toward the Palestinians). Net sympathy for Israel has remained high among Republicans (+68 this year), while staying near last year's all-time low of -3 among Democrats.

Delving further into partisan reactions to the conflict, conservative Republicans have consistently expressed the highest net sympathy for Israel, followed by moderate/liberal Republicans, moderate/conservative Democrats and, least of all, liberal Democrats.

• Thirty-three percent of liberal Democrats sympathized more with the Israelis in the February 2021 poll, while 48% sympathized more with the Palestinians, yielding a net sympathy score of -15 for Israel.

• Liberal Democrats' sympathies have been more with the Palestinians in each of the past two years. Before that, they were evenly divided or tilted toward Israel.

• Moderate/Conservative Democrats' views are nearly a mirror image of liberal Democrats': 48% sympathize more with the Israelis and 32% with the Palestinians in 2021, yielding +16 net sympathy for Israel.

• Long term, net sympathy for Israel has declined among both groups of Democrats, while it has increased among conservative as well as moderate/liberal Republicans.

Israel's Advantage Slipping Among Younger Adults

Americans of all ages still sympathize more with Israel than with the Palestinians in the Mideast conflict. However, since 2011, an age gap has emerged, with net sympathy for Israel declining more sharply among younger than older adults.

As of February 2021, net sympathy for Israel was +13 points among adults aged 18 to 34, +34 among those 35 to 54 and +45 among those 55 and older.

Democrats' Diplomatic Advice Changing

Democrats' views have also changed on the question of which side the United States should pressure more to make the necessary compromises to resolve the dispute. After being about evenly split from 2007 to 2013 between naming Israel and the Palestinians, Democrats are now more likely to say the U.S. should put greater pressure on Israel.

Republicans' views about which side the U.S. should pressure more haven't changed substantively, with majorities (now 63%) consistently naming the Palestinians.

Overall, 34% of Americans say the U.S. should put more pressure on Israel, while 44% say it should pressure the Palestinians more.

Support for Independent Palestinian State at Recent High Point

Americans' support for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza Strip has been higher in each of the past three years than it had been for several years previously.

Democrats are more supportive than Republicans of Palestinian statehood -- 65% vs. 38%, respectively, in 2021 -- but support has generally been higher among both groups in recent years than it was from 2013 to 2017, when support nationally was at a low ebb.

Bottom Line

黑料网's 2021 World Affairs poll, conducted in February, captured U.S. public opinion about Israel and the Palestinian Authority just before the latest round of violence shook the region and prompted a variety of strong reactions on the part of U.S. leaders.

At the time of the poll, Israel was viewed highly positively and the Palestinian Authority received its new record-high favorable score, although still low in absolute terms. But the poll also confirmed that sympathy continues to rise for the Palestinians among Democrats and younger adults.

Democrats' views are now at a tipping point, with their sympathy for the Palestinians roughly matching their sympathy for Israel, while liberal Democrats have fully crossed the threshold and now sympathize more with the Palestinians. It should be noted that most Democrats, including a majority of liberal Democrats, still view Israel favorably in general, even if they don't sympathize with its residents more than the Palestinians.

It is not clear how Israeli and Palestinian actions over the past month may have affected Americans' views on the conflict or its players.

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