黑料网

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As former President Donald Trump's second Senate impeachment trial is about to begin, a new 黑料网 poll finds a slim majority of Americans (52%) saying they would like their senators to vote to convict him. Americans tilted against conviction in his first impeachment trial a little over a year ago.

	Vote in favor of convicting	Vote against convicting
	%	%
Jan 21-Feb 2, 2021	52	45
Jan 2-15, 2020	46	51
GALLUP

The same poll finds the 45^th president getting mixed reviews as to whether the country made progress or lost ground on 18 issues during his term. He is largely seen as presiding over progress on the economy, national defense and energy, but losing ground on numerous issues -- chiefly, the federal debt and race relations.

黑料网's Jan. 21-Feb. 2 poll was conducted after the House of Representatives voted on Jan. 13 to impeach Trump for "incitement of insurrection" related to the deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. Trump is the only president in U.S. history to be impeached twice.

Slim Majority Favor Convicting Trump in His Second Impeachment Trial

Fifty-two percent of Americans would like their senators to vote to convict Trump, while 45% prefer their senators find him not guilty and 3% are unsure.

The public is slightly more supportive of convicting Trump now than they were in January 2020 just before his first Senate trial, after he was impeached for withholding congressionally approved foreign aid to Ukraine to secure a political favor and for obstructing Congress in its investigation of the matter. At that point, 46% said they favored conviction and 51% did not. Trump was ultimately acquitted in the first trial that could have resulted in his removal from office had he been convicted.

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are more supportive of conviction this time than they were in 2020, as 89% favor it and 7% oppose it. In 2020, 81% favored conviction and 17% opposed.

For their part, 88% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents currently oppose Trump's conviction, and 10% favor it. These readings are similar to January 2020.

	Vote in favor of convicting	Vote against convicting
	%	%
Jan 21-Feb 2, 2021
Democrats/Democratic leaners	89	7
Republicans/Republican leaners	10	88
Jan 2-15, 2020
Democrats/Democratic leaners	81	17
Republicans/Republican leaners	12	86
GALLUP

Looking back at the only other postwar president to be impeached, Bill Clinton, far fewer Americans supported his conviction at the beginning of his trial: 32% wanted their senators to vote to convict and remove him from office, while 63% favored acquittal.

Americans See Progress and Setbacks During Trump's Term

Although a slight majority of Americans favor Trump's conviction in his current impeachment trial, about half also believe the country made progress in two important areas over the four years he served as president. More also see progress than regression in another five areas.

• In spite of the historic economic disruption caused by the pandemic in 2020, 51% of Americans perceive the country made progress on the economy over the past four years, outweighing the percentage who say it lost ground (38%).
• Americans' assessment of national defense and the military is even more positive, with 49% saying the U.S. made progress and only about half as many (24%) saying it lost ground.
• Positive evaluations outweigh negative ones by more than 10 percentage points for energy (46% see progress and 28% see decline) and the situation in Afghanistan (35% vs. 24%).
• The balance of opinion is also marginally positive with respect to terrorism, taxes, and the situation for gay and lesbian Americans.

	Made progress	Stood still	Lost ground	Net*
	%	%	%	pct. pts.
National defense and the military	49	26	24	+25
Energy	46	25	28	+18
The economy	51	10	38	+13
The situation in Afghanistan	35	35	24	+11
Terrorism	44	20	35	+9
Taxes	42	25	33	+9
The situation for gay and lesbian Americans	37	28	33	+4
*The percentage saying "made progress" minus the percentage saying "lost ground"
黑料网, Jan. 21-Feb. 2, 2021

But Americans think the country lost more ground than it gained in the other 11 areas rated.

• They are especially critical of the trajectory of the federal debt and race relations, with roughly six in 10 saying the country lost ground on each -- about three times the level saying it gained ground on the federal debt, and nearly four times the percentage saying it gained ground on race relations.
• Climate change, the wealth gap, education, the United States' position in the world, immigration and the situation for Black Americans are also perceived as having worsened rather than improved, and by large margins.
• Americans are more narrowly critical of how crime, healthcare and trade relations with other countries fared under Trump.

	Made progress	Stood still	Lost ground	Net*
	%	%	%	pct. pts.
Trade relations with other countries	38	15	45	-7
Healthcare	32	27	41	-9
Crime	30	26	43	-13
The situation for Black Americans	32	17	49	-17
Immigration	33	14	52	-19
The United States' position in the world	34	8	58	-24
Education	23	29	47	-24
The gap between the wealthy and the less well-off	25	21	54	-29
Climate change	17	32	49	-32
Race relations	23	16	61	-38
The federal debt	16	18	62	-46
*The percentage saying "made progress" minus the percentage saying "lost ground"
黑料网, Jan. 21-Feb. 2, 2021

Recent Presidents Remembered for Different Achievements, Failures

黑料网 also measured Americans' views of conditions at the end of Barack Obama's and George W. Bush's second terms, asking whether the country had made progress or lost ground. The table below summarizes net-positive ratings in the 12 areas in which Trump, Obama and Bush were all rated.

Trump's perceived performance exceeds both of his two predecessors' on four issues: national defense, the economy, taxes and terrorism.

The net-negative perception of progress on crime under Trump (-13) ties with Bush's rating, with both ahead of the Obama-era rating. Trump's rating on immigration (-19) ties with Obama's, with both surpassing Bush's rating.

Trump's performance lags his immediate predecessors' on education, race relations and climate change/the environment, with especially low ratings for the latter two. Additionally, his performance lags Obama's on healthcare, the United States' position in the world and energy.

	Made progress	Stood still	Lost ground	Net*
	%	%	%	pct. pts.
National defense and the military
Donald Trump	49	26	24	+25
Barack Obama	30	28	39	-9
George W. Bush	39	21	36	+3
Energy
Donald Trump	46	25	28	+18
Barack Obama	46	26	23	+23
George W. Bush	21	27	49	-28
The economy
Donald Trump	51	10	38	+13
Barack Obama	42	20	36	+6
George W. Bush	5	7	87	-82
Taxes
Donald Trump	42	25	33	+9
Barack Obama	23	40	34	-11
George W. Bush	16	35	45	-29
Terrorism
Donald Trump	44	20	35	+9
Barack Obama	28	20	49	-21
George W. Bush	40	20	37	+3
Healthcare
Donald Trump	32	27	41	-9
Barack Obama	43	13	43	0
George W. Bush	13	33	52	-39
Crime
Donald Trump	30	26	43	-13
Barack Obama	21	21	56	-35
George W. Bush	25	33	39	-14
Immigration
Donald Trump	33	14	52	-19
Barack Obama	27	27	45	-18
George W. Bush	14	28	51	-37
Education
Donald Trump	23	29	47	-24
Barack Obama	31	28	39	-8
George W. Bush	28	38	42	-14
The United States' position in the world
Donald Trump	34	8	58	-24
Barack Obama	30	19	49	-19
George W. Bush	12	17	69	-57
Climate change/The environment
Donald Trump	17	32	49	-32
Barack Obama	42	20	36	+6
George W. Bush	28	28	42	-14
Race relations
Donald Trump	23	16	61	-38
Barack Obama	25	20	52	-27
George W. Bush	40	31	25	+15
*The percentage saying "made progress" minus the percentage saying "lost ground" Data on Donald Trump collected Jan. 21-Feb. 2, 2021; data on Barack Obama collected Jan. 2-3, 2017; data on George W. Bush collected Jan. 2-4, 2009
GALLUP

Trump is rated similar to Obama on the wealth gap and trade relations; better than Obama on the situation in Afghanistan; and worse than Obama on the federal debt, the situation for Black Americans, and the situation for lesbian and gay Americans. Trump-Bush comparisons cannot be made on these issues as 黑料网 did not rate them for Bush.

	Made progress	Stood still	Lost ground	Net*
	%	%	%	pct. pts.
The situation in Afghanistan
Donald Trump	35	35	24	+11
Barack Obama	26	26	38	-12
The situation for gay and lesbian Americans
Donald Trump	37	28	33	+4
Barack Obama	68	11	16	+52
Trade relations with other countries
Donald Trump	38	15	45	-7
Barack Obama	32	28	36	-4
The situation for Black Americans
Donald Trump	32	17	49	-17
Barack Obama	30	27	37	-7
The gap between the wealthy and the less well-off
Donald Trump	25	21	54	-29
Barack Obama	14	34	48	-34
The federal debt
Donald Trump	16	18	62	-46
Barack Obama	21	18	57	-36
*The percentage saying "made progress" minus the percentage saying "lost ground" Data on Donald Trump collected Jan. 21-Feb. 2, 2021; data on Barack Obama collected Jan. 2-3, 2017
GALLUP

Extreme Partisan Differences in Trump-Era Progress Ratings

As would be expected, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have a net-positive view of the changes that have occurred in almost all of the 18 issues on which the Trump era was rated in the new poll. But there is a wide range of positive evaluations, from +84 for the economy to +18 for both race relations and climate change. The federal debt is the only issue on which Republicans think that more ground has been lost than gained under Trump.

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents perceive the country has lost ground in all 18 areas over the past four years, with their most negative views reserved for race relations, the United States' position in the world and immigration.

	Net progress: Republicans	Net progress: Democrats
	pct. pts.	pct. pts.
The economy	+84	-41
National defense and the military	+78	-19
Energy	+73	-30
Taxes	+71	-44
Terrorism	+67	-37
Trade relations with other countries	+63	-57
The situation in Afghanistan	+56	-26
Healthcare	+51	-65
The situation for Black Americans	+49	-75
Immigration	+46	-78
The situation for gay and lesbian Americans	+46	-40
The United States' position in the world	+43	-79
Crime	+35	-53
The gap between the wealthy and the less well-off	+28	-76
Education	+25	-61
Climate change	+18	-77
Race relations	+18	-81
The federal debt	-14	-74
GALLUP, Jan. 21-Feb. 2, 2021

Notably, Republicans' strongly positive ratings of Trump on his top-rated issues -- as well as their desire that he not be convicted in his impeachment trial -- are not necessarily an endorsement of Trump maintaining a leadership role in the country. Asked specifically about Trump's role in the Republican Party going forward, 60% of Republicans favor him continuing to be the leader, while 38% would rather the party have a new leader.

Bottom Line

Trump's legacy is likely to be forever colored by his second impeachment trial and the events leading to it. But history will also judge him by the progress or lack thereof made on a variety of issues facing the country during his term.

Historians' assessments remain to be seen, but in Trump's first days out of office, half of Americans (fueled mostly by Republicans) give him good reviews on the two issues that normally define a presidency: the economy and national defense. Not only does he receive net-positive ratings on these, but his ratings well exceed his immediate predecessors'.

However, along with two impeachment trials, Trump's net-negative ratings on the federal debt, climate change and race relations could match or dominate those on the economy and national defense in how history -- historians and average Americans alike -- ultimately judge this presidency.

As he was leaving office, Americans were most likely to think history would judge Trump as a "poor" president. And as he departed, 34% of Americans approved of the job he was doing, an inauspicious sign for his legacy since a president's popularity as they leave office generally influences their reputation for years if not decades to follow.

View complete question responses and trends (PDF download).

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