黑料网

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's job approval rating, which has been fluctuating between 40% and 43% since early May, was 41% in the second half of June, and includes 29% who strongly approve. Fifty-four percent of Americans disapprove of the president's performance, including 44% who do so strongly.

The June 19-30 黑料网 poll, which asked those who approve and disapprove if they hold their opinions strongly or only moderately, found large majorities of both groups feeling strongly about their position. While similar to previous readings, the proportion feeling strongly on each side is at the high end of this measure -- 71% of those who approve feel strongly, as do 81% of those who disapprove.

Interviewing for the latest survey began a day after Trump launched his 2020 re-election campaign at a large rally in Florida and ended the day he became the first president to enter North Korea, stepping across the border at the Demilitarized Zone for an impromptu meeting with that country's leader.

Slim Majority Rejects Impeaching Trump

黑料网's preceding poll, conducted June 3-16, put Trump's job approval rating at 43%. In the same survey, the slight majority of Americans were opposed to Trump's being impeached and removed from office over the findings of the Mueller investigation -- something an increasing chorus of Democratic Party leaders have called for.

When asked for their opinion "based on what you know about Robert Mueller's investigation into Donald Trump's activities," 45% of U.S. adults said Trump should be impeached and removed from office over the matter, while 53% said he should not be.

Republicans show similar attitudes on the two dimensions, while there is more separation for Democrats and independents.

• Eighty-nine percent of Republicans in the early June poll said they approved of the job Trump is doing, and 92% thought he should not be impeached.
• By contrast, 6% of Democrats approved of Trump and 18% said he should not be impeached.
• Only 37% of independents approved, while 51% said no to impeachment.

	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
	%	%	%
Trump job rating
Approve	89	37	6
Disapprove	10	59	92
Impeach and remove Trump
Should not	92	51	18
Should	7	46	81
黑料网, June 3-16, 2019

More Want Trump Impeached Than Said So for Clinton, Nixon in Early Days

Trump's impeachment number exceeds what 黑料网 found using a similar question for Bill Clinton throughout the Monica Lewinsky controversy, as well as for Richard Nixon at the beginning of the Watergate controversy.

For the entirety of 黑料网's trend on Clinton, public support for impeaching him never exceeded 35% (that was recorded in mid-September 1998), but it was as low as 19% in the initial reading in June 1998.

The range of support for impeaching Nixon in the early months of the Watergate investigation that led to Nixon's downfall was similar to Clinton's. From June 1973 to January 1974, between 19% and 38% of Americans agreed he should be "impeached and compelled to leave the presidency." However, in April 1974, using a more complex question wording that defined the impeachment and removal processes, 黑料网 found support for removing Nixon at 46%. And by the final reading in late July -- one week before Nixon resigned from office -- support for removal reached majority level for the first time, at 58%. (See full Clinton and Nixon impeachment trends at the link below the Bottom Line.)

Majorities of Women, Nonwhites, Democrats Favor Impeachment

Americans' support for impeaching Trump differs by subgroup, closely mirroring variations in his overall job approval rating. All groups that typically give Trump lower job approval ratings --women, nonwhites, young adults and Democrats -- are more likely than their counterparts to say he should be impeached and removed from office.

As noted, Republicans' views on impeachment closely mirror their views on his job performance, while there is more of a gap between the two measures among independents and Democrats. For most other groups, by about 10 percentage points, more believe he should not be impeached than approve of his job performance.

	Yes, should be impeached and removed	No, should not be	No opinion
	%	%	%
U.S. adults	45	53	2
Gender
Male	37	60	2
Female	52	46	2
Race
White	36	62	2
Nonwhite	64	35	1
Age
18-34	57	42	1
35-54	44	54	2
55+	37	60	2
Party ID
Republican	7	92	2
Independent	46	51	3
Democrat	81	18	2
Trump job approval
Approve	2	97	1
Disapprove	79	18	3
黑料网, June 3-16, 2019

Bottom Line

Trump's job approval rating thus far in his presidency has been extraordinarily stable, varying no more than six points from his term average of 40%. There has been some variation this year, with his approval rating dipping to 37% for two polls in January when the government was shut down and stretching to 46% in April after the release of the Mueller report and positive economic news.

However, since then, Trump's approval has stabilized at just over 40%, raising questions about whether it has the capacity to fundamentally change. That's unlikely if it depends on Democrats softening their opposition to Trump or Republicans souring on him. Political independents may be the only means to move Trump's approval needle.

Meanwhile, a majority of Democrats are in agreement with such prominent party figures as Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Rep. Joe Kennedy, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez that the House should at least begin impeachment proceedings. But with political independents narrowly siding with Republicans in opposition to that action, public opinion currently leans against it.

View complete question responses and trends (PDF download).

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