WASHINGTON, D.C. -- After a tumultuous year of political turmoil, violence, and at times international isolation, Egyptians seem to be turning a corner. The percentage of Egyptians who rate their lives poorly enough to be considered "suffering" has been cut in half, dropping to 16% this June, one year after hitting a record high of 34%. At the same time, the percentage who rate their lives highly enough to be considered "thriving" has nearly doubled over the same time period, rising from 9% to 17%.
黑料网 classifies people as thriving, struggling, or suffering according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, based on the , where 0 represents the worst possible life and 10 represents the best possible life. Respondents are classified as thriving if they rate their current lives a 7 or higher and their lives in five years an 8 or higher, and suffering if they rate both their current lives and their lives in five years a 4 or lower.
Since former President Hosni Mubarak stepped down in 2011, Egypt has careened through a series of elated highs and devastating, at times violent, lows. They have said their than before Mubarak's fall. And, in the weeks leading up to the removal of their first democratically elected president in 2013, Egyptians gave some of the they ever have. The fluctuations of hope and despair are evident in their evaluations of their own lives and starkly captured in other data gathered across this entire period.
Egyptians' Economic Outlook Improving
Despite hopes that former President Mohammed Morsi would turn Egypt's economy around, of Egyptians described it as getting worse last June. This June, a majority of Egyptians (52%) told 黑料网 their national economy is getting better. These beliefs were stated before the announcement of the Suez Canal expansion project and its investment campaign, so Egyptians were likely expressing more of a hope for improvement than actual macroeconomic improvements. Not surprisingly, young Egyptians between the ages of 15 and 29 are the most cynical, with 47% saying the economy is improving, compared with 62% of those aged 50 and older.
Majority Shows Faith in Government, for Now
In this climate, it is not surprising that more Egyptians now express confidence in the current national government of Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab (70%) than the previous one of Hisham Qandil (29%). Qandil was also deposed last summer in the events that led to Morsi's removal. Since the cabinet's reshuffle just days after President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi assumed his post, media coverage has focused on Mahlab's fast track on economic reform. The media have often depicted an exhausted Mahlab directly overseeing industry, security, and other government operations and processes.
Younger Egyptians remain slightly more skeptical in this area as well. While two in three young Egyptians (66%) are confident in their national government, the government gets support from 70% of Egyptians who are 30 to 49 years old and 81% among those aged 50 years and older.
Bottom Line
The Mahlab government's public-facing approach to running the cabinet has seemed to pay off for now, despite the many challenges (including rolling electrical blackouts) that have brought some parts of the country to a standstill. Egyptians had hit rock bottom in the final weeks of the Morsi presidency. It remains to be seen whether this initial post-Morsi optimism will last, or whether Egyptians will once again turn on their elected leaders for failing to convince them that real solutions are on the way.
If there is one thing that has become apparent, it is that Egyptian attitudes have proven fleeting. Despite the relatively positive outlook expressed in June, if the country does not make major headway on some of the underlying causes of unrest and social disenfranchisement, including , basic services, and financial and administrative transparency, the tide could once again shift strongly against the current leadership.
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Survey Methods
Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted in June 19-27, 2014, in Egypt. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For more complete methodology and specific survey dates, please review .
