黑料网

PRINCETON, NJ -- More than a quarter of registered voters say they have already voted or will vote before Election Day next Tuesday. Early voting is highest among those living in the West -- about 60% of whom have voted or plan to vote early -- and older voters. There are only small differences in early voting by party at this point.

These results are based on a question included in 黑料网's Oct. 21-24 interviewing, asking respondents if they had already voted, if they planned on voting before Election Day, or if they planned on voting on Election Day itself. Respondents could volunteer that they did not plan on voting at all.

It is difficult to put these findings into historical perspective because 黑料网 does not have a measure of early voting from previous midterm elections. 黑料网 finds self-reported early voting to be slightly lower in this midterm so far than it was in 2008, when 32% of registered voters just before that presidential election said they had voted or still planned to vote early. Prior to the 2004 presidential election, 21% said they had voted or planned on voting early.

Older Voters and Those in the West Most Likely to Vote Early

There is a decided age skew in early voting, with 18% of those 65 and older saying they have voted early, and another 18% saying they plan on voting early. By contrast, only 4% of 18- to 29-year-olds have already voted, with another 12% saying they plan on voting early.

The fact that 28% of registered voters under 30 -- compared with only 5% of seniors -- volunteer that they do not plan on voting is a telling indication of the reality that young people are disproportionately less involved in the election process than their elders.

The differences in early voting intentions between the Eastern and Western portions of the country are substantial, . Fifty-nine percent of those in the West say they will be early voters. That compares with 6% in the East and 10% in the Midwest, where voting patterns are much more traditionally focused on Election Day itself.

Few Political Clues

While interested observers have been poring over reports of early voting in an attempt to get a handle on the direction of the election, 黑料网's current data do not show much of a difference in early voting by party affiliation. Thirteen percent of self-identified Republican registered voters say they have already voted, compared with 9% of independents and Democrats. The percentages of those in each party group who say they will vote between now and Election Day are roughly equal.

Implications

黑料网's findings about early voting so far certainly suggest the election is already over -- or will be within the next several days -- for a significant number of residents in the Western part of the country. In the East and Midwest, on the other hand, most voters will cast their ballots on Nov. 2, meaning that 11th-hour campaigning and debates may still be relevant in these regions, even as they have less impact in the West.

The finding that older voters have a higher propensity to vote early is not a new one, but confirms that many senior citizens, like residents in the West, are by this point in the election cycle essentially "out of the game" as far as the campaigning is concerned. A disproportionately high number of younger registered voters volunteer that they will not end up voting this year, also confirming what is well-known in American politics -- that young voters are as a rule not highly involved in the election process.

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